South African wine to the US is down 64% since 2023
USITC customs: volume collapsed 64% (2023 → H1 2026) vs Chile −21%. Tariff path 30% then 12.5%. UK held; bottled £/L −20% in the US, +12% in Britain.
The American shelf is the one that emptied.
Vinetur, 1 September, on USITC customs: South African wine volume to the United States fell 64% between 2023 and the first half of 2026. Chile fell 21% over the same stretch. Stocks at home sit near Covid levels after two big harvests.
Dr Kandas Cloete (BFAP): once the current US duty sits on existing prices, SA wine struggles against rivals on lower tariffs. Shipping and distribution do not shrink with the farm gate. Nick Vink (Stellenbosch): the US is about 5% of SA wine export value. Uncertainty has been almost as damaging as the rate.
The path: 30% duty from 1 August 2025, then 12.5% under Section 301 from 24 July 2026. The slide had started before the 30%. Shelf space lost is hard to win back.
UK contrast: volume −2%, market share 19% to 22.3%. Bottled price per litre +12% in Britain, −20% in the US.
WoSA CEO Siobhan Thompson: demand shifts, distributor consolidation and tariffs — not one cause. Listing calls sit with exporters and importers.
Mini-concept: a tariff can move a percentage. A lost US listing can take years to rebuild.
A flavoured can never needed Section 301. These Cape bottles did — and the US bought 64% less volume.
Remember: −64% to the US since 2023, while the UK share rose.
Source: Vinetur